By Leonard Zehr

Judging from every ego-driven billionaire who wants to own Dow Jones & Co., you’d think all hell could break loose any minute to outbid News Corp.’s $60-a-share (U.S.) offer, which is still being reviewed by the controlling Bancroft clan.

But don’t tell that to UBS analyst Brian Shipman. He isn’t convinced the bidding will rise significantly, if at all, above $60 a share and he doesn’t believe another suitor will enter the fray because of the “aggressive” bid now on the table.

As a result, he downgraded Dow Jones to “reduce” from “neutral,” urging investors to take profits because there’s a real possibility that no deal gets done, so the downside far outweighs the upside.

Indeed, if the company remains in the hands of the Bancrofts, he figures the stock will likely drop back into the mid-$30s, where it was before the News Corp. offer.

To hedge his bets, though, Mr. Shipman raised his target price to “probability weighted” $48 from $38, which had been based on operating fundamentals.

The stock is trading at $58.16 on the NYSE Thursday, down 98 cents or 1.7 per cent.

Copyright Fund China 2009.

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