From: “China Securities News”
Compiler: Fund China

Guests:
ABN AMRO TEDA risk budget fund managers Xu Jie
Galaxy Securities Fund Research Center the researcher Ma Yong’an

Moderator: “China Securities News” reporter Yu Zhe

Around three main line of the second half of the year

Moderator : two quarterly data show that the financial and real estate fund, which last year hit the plate again seized returned. Then, the third quarter and even the second half of the year, which trades may have a relatively good performance?

Xu Jie : Our investment in the second half of the year, mainly centered on three ideas, which is three lines :

The first is the main line of asset prices rose. We firmly optimistic about the revaluation of asset prices, including the price of real estate, coal and other resource-type products price increases. We promising two plates of the earth, the first segment is real estate board, and the second segment is represented by the coal resource-type plate.

On the second line of the consumer. Data can be seen the first half of this year has been very rapid growth in consumption, The first half of the total volume of retail sales of social consumer goods growth rate reached 15.9%, but keeps rising. With the increase in consumption in China restructuring strategy, national policy as well as supporting the expansion of the consumer. Consumption in the main line, we are optimistic about the retail segment first, followed by a good number of other consumer goods, including furniture, foodstuffs, beverages and other consumer products.

The third is the main line of industrial upgrading. China’s recent economic rise cycle is heavy and chemical industries driven to a large extent reflected the heavy chemical industry increased. This in itself and China’s current economy-related, including real estate, automobiles, and other consumption reaches of Machinery Industry, include engineering machinery and other equipment industry’s rapid rise. Meanwhile, China re-chemical industry international competitiveness improved significantly, international demand is very strong. Therefore, in the main line, we have good communications equipment, machinery equipment, and so on.

Steel shares will be the most explosive force

Moderator : Second quarter steel shares were reducing the funds rate higher. Meanwhile, many fund managers believe that despite some national export policy, Iron & steel’s price and other problems, But they think that the third quarter will be the re-emergence of steel opportunity. Now the market for steel stocks controversial, then how to analyze the steel stocks investment value?

Xu Jie : I think that steel stocks will be the second half of the stock market, the most explosive power industry.

From a long-term industry fundamentals, the United States economic performance this year is better than we expected, Japan and the euro zone’s economic performance is relatively strong, in addition to China and other developing countries, including Russia, Southeast Asia, Africa and some other countries economic growth is relatively strong, This international steel demand should not have to worry about.

Look at domestic demand and lower reaches of the steel machinery, automotive, and other industries remained rapid growth, steel demand should remain very rapid growth.

We see supply, in fact the steel industry’s fixed assets investment from last year and this data, we can see that Last year, it was basically no growth this year, the growth rate is very slow. Note the speed of the supply industry in decline. From the supply and demand situation can be analyzed and steel next year should maintain high profitability of the industry has great support.

Then why steel stocks relatively weak recent performance? My analysis is mainly due to the current price of steel is in a slump period, which is quarterly causes. Steel price has stabilized after the steel units will usher in a relatively good investment opportunity. From the valuation perspective, the global steel industry is basically the valuation in 2007 to 11 times, in 2008 from 10 to 11 times between, it is because the international steel industry is not very high growth potential. China this year, almost 12 times the next year, almost 10 times the basic and the international economy. We do all of China’s industry, and international valuation standards, a very small, steel count one, from the valuation level of security to see relatively high, by a very small space. So let us take note of this steel stock prices, it is possible to buy shares of steel a good time, This is my personal opinion.

Moderator : So the steel plate, along which investors can choose ideas?

Xu Jie : I think it is the two ideas : an idea is to select those who strength is very strong. very clear prospects for growth of large companies, including Bao Steel, Anshan Steel, Wuhan Steel such companies, which is very good fundamentals. but also by the support of national policies. In the steel industry, in the future we may see the situation of Strong more strong.

Second look at some kind of restructuring the company, some may have good prospects for the merger, these companies may choose.

Heavy investment value is recognized

Moderator : Fund quarterly statistics can be found, second-quarter fund holdings concentrated decline while open positions at the ratio of stock direction Fund also declined slightly. Does this reflect the Fund in the second quarter to take a defensive posture?

Ma Yong’an : two quarterly data is the end of the second quarter data. After two quarters of the second half of the market there is a big adjustment. So I feel that the data reflect more of the Fund in the third quarter market perspectives. In fact it is not particularly accurate reflection of the Fund in the second quarter, the operating characteristics of the entire process.

Look from the current data, the fund is located next to the slight decline, If the two quarter new positions of the funds removed Second quarter of the entire operation of the expiration of the Fund is located next to the overall decline. According to my personal understanding, this decline is more in the second quarter and the second half, especially towards the end of the period. adjusted some more, so it is more a reflection on the views of the third quarter.

Moderator : If we wish to make clear understanding of the Fund’s quarterly operating two ideas, may need more from the fund managers there first-hand information. Will Xu Jie, ABN AMRO TEDA probably take two quarters of how the investment strategy?

Xu Jie : ABN AMRO TEDA strategy actually in our second quarter strategy report has been brought up, We believe the second quarter will be very good blue chip performance. At that time, we also made various topics shares likely to continue in the second quarter was a focal point, but it contains great risks. Market adjustments when such stocks fell space is extremely high, the market was in fact the basic performance test this view. But blue chips showed strong resilience, many blue chips later scored a new high. In our operation, basically followed this viewpoint.

It should be said that the “5.30″ Clearly, we feel re-value investment philosophy recognized by the market. For instance, ZTE and Datang Telecom, ZTE value analysis is far higher than Datang Telecom, However, the first half of Datang Telecom stock prices rising every day, ZTE’s share price has been lying on the ground. At that time, we feel rather depressed. However, the adjustment in the market, who is a powerful stock reflected on the obvious. ZTE in the crash instead of rising, but then continue to rise. This is also evident from the results of value investing.

The second half of the year fund will outperform the large?

Moderator : In the first half, especially in a quarter of many funds did not outperform large, Foundation for the second half of the year of the performance will not be more active?

Ma Yong’an : Lane Fund unilateralism bull run not win big is a normal phenomenon. Lane unilateralism bull market access to high-yield many cases the truth rather than relying on the guts capacity. Overseas, the Public-fund the most important task is to control the risk, because 40% to 60% of the investment ratio of pensions, insurance funds to secure these sources of funding. But the IMF ability to control risks concussion in the city, even down to the markets was especially obvious, advantage reflected particularly evident. Judging from the current market situation, the third quarter or even the fourth quarter of the market there will be no unilateral increase. This fund which is right on the edge of the reflected.

The end of the second quarter of a market adjustment, the injured is the largest tick, and the subject matter Unit. These stocks could in a very long time to return to the level before. Future market will return to the main line with the value of investment, I think the chance for the Fund to come.

Moderator : In the first half of the small size of the Fund to run faster, to the relatively large size of the Fund relative stupid. Changes in the market environment, this gap between the performance of the changes will happen?

Ma Yong’an : In the first half of small-scale performance of the Fund over the medium – and large-scale fund performance better. I do not think the size of the Fund, but investment strategy decision. Tick speculation in the second half of the upside of the market weakened, so in the middle of the Fund on to the good life. Medium-scale operation of the Fund is relatively stable and may well return. However, large-scale high-yield fund more difficult, This is because many funds to scale it is beyond the proper scope of the market to accommodate.

Highlights intervals

Q : Recently, the media unanimously commented that the CPI fast, and the austerity policy will soon be promulgated. Why Fund also maintained over 70% of positions?

Ma Yong’an : different funds have different positions at the ratio restrictions, so can not be located next drop too low. In the long history of operation, the Fund’s optional when the transaction is null and void. Choice in the market by reducing the time located next, located next declined to a very low, the market rose course, very high positions at the ratio of Rafah, From a long-term perspective is invalid. Fund for a short time will not be so frequent or large-scale or Cengcang Jiancang the operation, only one policy. it done, located next to the large proportion of adjustment is obviously unrealistic. And most promising market fund or a long-term development and, on this basis, the choice of the relatively high positions at the ratio of the stock, This is the continuation of the overall judgment of the market.

Q : I heard that ABN AMRO TEDA to be issued the new fund, can you tell them?

Xu Jie : This fund name is optimized market funds, mainly in the size movement and industry movement to fight for access to surplus income.

Q : What is the risk budget funds?

Xu Jie : Perhaps, you have the names of curiosity, in fact, risk budget funds and the general equity funds are very different. It is a debt stock-fund balance, and the pursuit of absolute returns. The fund shares only to the highest positions at the ratio of 50%. What is the risk budget? Because the fund is ABN AMRO Bank in the development of products, We introduce ABN AMRO Bank’s risk technology budget. Through this technology, we should fund the risks identified in advance.

Q : Recently, what about fund purchase and redeem of the situation?

Ma Yong’an : “5.30″ after two days of fund purchase, redemption is a big, after basically is net purchase. I think a lot of investors are aware of paper wealth is really inappropriate, before the potential returns in a few days up in smoke. This is for the investors profound education. Many retail investors may join the fund, which is a normal phenomenon, but this is a mature market inevitable process. Mature stock market generally experienced such a process, a large number of retail investors to withdraw from, but they choose fund investments.

Copyright Fund China 2009.

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